Capital Commitment Screen

Capital is about to be advanced, stakeholders aligned, or the project moved into development.

This rarely appears as a single decision. It forms through sequence.

Each step appears incremental. Together, they create expectation, dependency, and institutional momentum. By the time the case weakens, the project may already be difficult to stop.

The screen evaluates whether capital progression preserves flexibility or creates commitment. This includes:

• whether spend is exploratory or directional 
• whether stakeholder alignment creates continuation pressure 
• whether sequencing embeds unvalidated assumptions 
• whether lock-in is already forming 

A formal determination is issued:

• Proceed: escalation is admissible within defined bounds 
• Defer: progression should not yet occur 
• Refuse: escalation is not justified under current conditions

Issued at the point of commitment.

Capital deployment, stakeholder alignment, and sequencing begin to convert assumptions into expectations.

Financial, institutional, and reputational momentum accumulate, making reversal increasingly difficult.

Core assumptions may remain unresolved while capital begins to commit.

Different underlying realities can lead to materially different returns, timelines, or viability.

Capital progression couples with infrastructure decisions, stakeholder expectations, and project trajectory.

If capital advancement embeds assumptions that remain unvalidated, uncertainty is still decision-dominant.

Proceed only where capital does not force commitment ahead of evidence. Otherwise defer.

Applies prior to major capital deployment or transition into development.