These materials examine when lunar exploration activity begins to harden into infrastructure commitment. Volatile evidence may justify continued investigation, bounded reconnaissance, or additional sensing. It does not automatically justify site selection, power placement, access routing, excavation geometry, logistics dependency, or ISRU architecture.
The governing question is:
When has the evidence earned the authority to shape commitment?
These materials are organized to help distinguish exploration-supporting evidence from commitment-authorizing evidence, identify where uncertainty remains decision-dominant, and show how early surface actions can create path dependence before the underlying resource condition has been resolved.
Poster - Governing Irreversible Commitments in Lunar Subsurface Exploration (png)
DownloadAbstract - Lunar Subsurface Governance Under Ignorance (pdf)
DownloadDecision Governance Before Irreversible Commitment (pdf)
DownloadLunar Signal-to-Commitment Consideration Map (pdf)
DownloadExample - Lunar Innovation Park Pre-Commitment Screen (pdf)
DownloadMenu - Lunar Governance Reviews (pdf)
DownloadMinimum Evidence Before Lunar Commitment_Full (pdf)
DownloadCommitment Admissibility Under Subsurface Ignorance Full (pdf)
DownloadLunar Surface Commitment Irreversibility Map Full (pdf)
DownloadLunar Commitment Interdependency Map (pdf)
DownloadCritical Uncertainty Set (pdf)
DownloadFalse Confidence Trap Set (pdf)
DownloadMenu Governance Reviews (Full) (pdf)
DownloadWhite Paper (Draft) (pdf)
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